Éclairer le choix des outils de simulation des changements des modes d'occupation et d'usages des sols. Une approche comparative

During the last decades, a diversity of models has been developed to simulate future land use and land cover changes (LUCC). In this paper, we compared four modeling tools: CLUE-S, DINAMICA EGO, CA_MARKOV and Land Change Modeler. We assessed the methods and tools available for each modeling tool within these models based on the six steps necessary for a generic framework of LUCC modeling: 1) estimating the quantity of LUCC, 2) identifying and assessing the influence of variables related to observed LUCC, 3) spatial allocation of future LUCC, 4) simulation of specific landscape patterns/LUCC, 5) assessing the model’s ability to simulate LUCC and 6) capacity of sophisticated model development to simulate complex LUCC. To illustrate this comparative analysis, the four models have been applied to a simple theoretical case study. We compared the tools and methods of each model, as well as the results of the simulations to assess their performance in all the listed steps of the LUCC modeling process. The aim of this study is to help modelers in the choice of an appropriate model regarding their modeling purpose. MOTS-CLÉS : modèle, changements d’occupation et d’utilisation des sols, simulation, prédiction, prospective.